Use the Pay-off Matrix to make decision and inform what decisions should the board take?

Other by Geoffrey

Question 1 – 20 marks

The Pulsometer Pump Company makes concrete pumping equipment for the European market and is at present operating at near production capacity. The sales and marketing director of the company anticipates that the market for concert pumps will increase by 15% during the next twelve months. The board must decide how to react to this change in demand. There are three strategies that are being considered

S1 Install new equipment to improve productivity with a new system of working

S2 Institute overtime and weekend working

S3 Continue to work at capacity and let rivals or new firms satisfy the increased demand.

A decision matrix can be constructed to show information (all columns show profits, in £000s).

  Market Factors
Strategy 15% Stable -10%
S1 240 130 0
S2 210 150 70
S3 170 150 70

 

Use the Pay-off Matrix to make decision and inform what decisions should the board take? The company board satisfied with pay-off procedure however they are not confident with your decision. The sales and marketing director of the company now decided that “we need the probabilities associated with the change in market demands”. The probabilities are

 

Market Outcomes Probability (in %)
15% Rise 0.6
Stable 0.3
10% fall 0.1

 

 

Calculate the Expected Monetary Value Analysis (EMV) for each strategy and use decision tree to show the best option. The board are impressed with decision method which has informed their decision making. They have assigned you to further investigation on the decision due to variability of returns and further measure of the degree of risk. You need support to do further investigation so that you can examine the sensitivity of decisions. A firm of consultants offer to survey the market for concrete pumps. This survey will lead to a revision of prior probabilities estimate of the likely market outcome. The survey will cost the company £5,000. The consultancy predictions records are shown below

 

 

    Consultant`s Prediction (in %)
Actual Market Outcome Prior

Probabilities

 Rise Stable Fall
Raise 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1
Stable 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.2
Fall 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7

 

Hint: The sum of getting a `Raise report` is given by the sum of the probabilities of getting a `Raise report` under each outcome multiplied respectively by the probability of getting that outcome.

Use the Bayes Theorem to revise the consultant`s prediction. Should you choose to pay for this additional information? Produce a revised Decision tree for the board to make a decision. You should discuss on your decision on to use or not to use the consultant firm and each strategy.

 

Part 1-Outcomes – 1 mark Page Number
Introduction to problem  
Pay-off matrices, decision and discussion  
EMV, Decision Tree and Discussion  
Bayes Theorem, step-by-step calculation, post probabilities table and discussion  
Each strategy probability and Decision tree  
Final Decision  

 

(Maximum 500 words)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Question 2 – 15 marks

In Week 5(using the Decision-Making Examples manual), you developed a simple spreadsheet modelling for Acron, a large drug company. You answered several questions on company production of drugs and their effect on the financial investments(NPV). Now, use the fully developed spreadsheet (after completing the manual) and perform below changes on the model,

  1. Modify Acron`s model so that development lasts for an extra year. Specifically, assume that development costs of $7.2million and $2.1million are incurred at the beginnings of years 1 and 2, and then the sales in the current model occur one year later, that is, from year 2 until year 21. Again, calculate the NPV discounted back to the beginning of year 1, and perform the same sensitivity analyses. Comment on the effects of this change in timing.
  2. Modify Acron`s model so that sales increase, then stay steady, and finally decrease. Specifically, assume that the gross margin is $1.2million in year 1, then increases by 10% annually through year 6, then stays constant through year 10, and finally decreases by 5% annually through year 20. Perform a sensitivity analysis with a two-way data table to see how NPV varies with the length of the increase period (currently 6 years) and the length of the constant period(currently 4 years). Comment on whether Acron should pursue the drug, given your results.
  3. Create a one-way data table in the Acron model to see how the NPV varies with discount rate, which is allowed to vary from 8% to 18% in increments of 0.5%. Explain intuitively why the results go in the direction they go- that is, the NPV decreases as the discount rate increases. Should Acron Pursue the drug for all of these discount rates?

 

Part 2-Outcomes- 1 mark Page Number
Answers for 3 questions on the manual  
Changes to spreadsheet with costs, NPV, Sensitivity Analyses and Discussion  
Changes to spreadsheet with cost, two-way data table, NPV, sensitivity analysis and discussion  
Changes to spreadsheet with cost, one-way data, discount factor changes with increments, discussion on changes  
Should Acron pursue the drug?  

 

(Maximum 500 words)

 

 

 

Question 3 – 20 marks

Suppose you own an expensive car and purchase auto insurance. This insurance has a $1000 deductible, so that if you have an accident and the damage is less than $1000, you pay for it out of your pocket. However, if the damage is greater than $1000, you pay the first $1000 and the insurance pays the rest. In the current year there is probability 0.025 that you will have an accident. If you have an accident, the damage amount is normally distributed with mean $3000 and standard deviation $750.

  1. Use Excel to simulate the amount you have to pay for damages to your car. This should be a one-line simulation, so run 5000 iterations by copying it down. Then find the average amount you pay, the standard deviation of the amounts you pay, and a 95% confidence interval for the average amount you pay. (Note that many of the amounts you pay will be 0 because you have no accidents).
  2. Continue, the simulation by creating a two-way data table, where the row input is the deductible amount, varied from $500 to $2000 in multiples of $500. Now find the average amount you pay, the standard deviation of the amounts you pay, and a 95% confidence internal for the average amount you pay for each deductible amount.
  3. Do you think it is reasonable to assume that damage amounts are normally distributed? What would you criticize about this assumption? What might you suggest instead?

 

Part 3-Outcomes – 1 mark Page Number
Simple Excel model with description  
Discussion on the mean, standard deviation of normal distribution  
One-line simulation, iterations, solutions and discussion  
Two-way data table, solutions and discussion  
Discussion on the outcomes  

 

(Maximum 500 words)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Question 4- 15 marks

                                                                 

Refer to the Table 1 and do the following:

 

  1. Calculate the Expected activity time,
  2. Develop the Network diagram using the Expected activity time and use PERT Analysis to know the mean and Sd of the project.
  3. Based on these estimates and the resultant expected project duration of 44 weeks. The executive committee wants to know what is the probability of completing the project before a scheduled time of 46 weeks?
  4. What is the probability that the project lasts more than 46 weeks?
  5. What would be the completion time under which for the project has 85% probability of completing?
  6. How do you measure project risk exposure? Explain and propose ways to reduce the project risk exposure.

(Maximum 500 words)

 

 

 

Table 1: All O, ML,P are in Weeks.

Activity Description   Optimistic Duration Most Likely Duration Pessimistic Duration Immediate Predecessor
A Set up the project acquisition team   1 2 3  
B Write down the software requirements   1 2 3 A
C Develop a contractor evaluation grid that will be used to evaluate proposals   0.5 1 1.5 B
D Identify and select potential contractors   0.5 1 1.5 A
E Develop and send out a request for proposal to potential contractors   3 4 5 B,D
F Audit candidate contractors, select one contractor, negotiate and sign an agreement   1 2 3 C,E
G Prepare the definition of functional specifications   3 5 7 F
H Develop a software testing plan   1 2 3 G
I Software customization phase I   10 12 14 G
J Purchase and install the hardware   1 2 3 G
K Test the first release   0.5 1 1.5 H,I,J
L Develop a training plan for key users   0.5 1 1.5 K
M Software customization phase II   4 6 8 K
N Test the second release   0.5 1 1.5 M
O Train Key users   1 2 3 L,N
P Software customization phase II   1.5 3 4.5 N
Q Test the final release   1 2 3 P
R Software deployment and project sign-off   2 4 6 Q

 

Part 4-Outcomes -1 mark Page Number
Simple Excel model with description  
Project Duration, mean of the project, Sd of the Project,  
Probability of before and more than 46 weeks  
The project has 85% probability of completing  
Project risk exposure discussion  

 

 

Question 5-20 marks

Read the attached paper (especially paper 2) carefully and develop the following:

 

  1. Project network of the example given in the paper using spread sheet. You can show it in table format or network diagram view.

 

  1. Incorporate the methodologies of risk factors discussed in the paper, in your project model (using spreadsheet). Explain the procedure of developing the project model and discuss on the risk methodologies used in the paper.

 

  1. Compare the results of your model with results in the paper and provide comments.

 

  1. If distribution of the weather risk factor is modelled using uniform distribution, discuss and critically comment on the new results as compared to Point 3.

 

  1. Conduct sensitivity analysis to identify the influence of different risks on project durations and critical review the outcome.

 

*Use Triangle Distribution for Event Distribution on the paper 2.

 

(Maximum 2000 words)