PHC 6191 – Quantitative Methods in Health Care Management – Spring 2023
Case Analysis – Predictive Analytics – SNF Census
The CIO for the skilled nursing facility that you work for has provided you 2018-2022 quarterly census (chap 02 – snf census .xls). Using these data, perform the tasks listed below. (Use a different Excel sheet for each task and label the sheet with the task number. Be sure to show how you derived your answers.)
- Graph the data & describe their features that are relevant to forecasting. (1 point)
- In a table and a graph, compare the actual values and the 5-quarter moving average.
(1 point) - In a table and a graph, compare the actual values and the 3-quarter weighted moving average, utilizing two weighting schemes of your choosing. Which scheme appears to better capture the data? How can you tell? (1 point)
- Derive the single exponentially smoothed series. Choose a smoothing constant value that quickly adjusts to forecast errors. Report the smoothing constant used and series values. What is the forecasted value for 2023Q1? (2 points)
- Calculate the quarterly index values. What is the seasonally adjusted predicted value for the forecasted value you calculated in the previous problem? (1 point)
- Using a linear trend approach employing regression analysis, what is the forecast patient volume 2023Q1? (1 point)
- Which of the above approaches appears to best fit the data? Be sure to compare all of the approaches used above, with the exception that for #3, you only need to examine the approach that best fit the data in that problem. (Hint: Employ the measures discussed in class.) (2 points)
- Your facility is experiencing difficult financial times and there are often periods where excess personnel are on call. How could your facility use predictive analytics to avoid this scenario? (1 point)
