Forecast Laredo International Airport airline enplanements using the data in the in class example. Using a 10-year average market share, develop projections for the years 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020.

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Market Share Forecast Homework -1 

Homework Market Share: Submit Excel Sheet

 

  1. Forecast Laredo International Airport airline enplanements using the data in the in class example. Using a 10-year average market share, develop projections for the years 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. Show your answers in a table.
Year Total Airline Enplanements Southwest Region Enplanements Market Share (%)
1990 59,279 60,925,903 0.0973%
1991 65,651 60,467,718 0.1086%
1992 80,593 63,396,932 0.1271%
1993 92,110 64,296,680 0.1433%
1994 97,998 67,434,877 0.1453%
1995 64,198 70,689,841 0.0908%
1996 57,996 72,061,761 0.0805%
1997 61,728 74,341,596 0.0830%
1998 79,714 75,957,918 0.1049%
1999 88,969 77,056,344 0.1155%
2000 90,647 79,833,666 0.1135%
2001 82,400 80,184,741 0.1028%
Ten Year Average     ???

 

2005 ??? 93,167,307 ???
2010 ??? 110,022,766 ???
2015 ??? 126,843,590 ???
2020 ??? 143,846,242 ???
2025 ??? 160,775,532 ???
  1. How does this forecast differ from that using the 5-year average?

 

  1. Which forecast would you select and why?

 

 

Forecast Homework – Regression Analysis

 

Using data in the below in class example, forecast GA operations using effective buying income (X2) as the independent variable. Develop forecasts for the years 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2030. Show your answers in a table.

Questions:

  • How does this forecast differ from that using employment as the independent variable?
  • What is the coefficient of determination for this scenario and what does it imply?

 

    Service Area
Year GA Operations (Y) Employment (X1) Effective Buying Income (X2)
2000 22,513 45,714 $8,433
2001 23,768 48,601 $9,207
2002 21,838 51,314 $10,106
2003 25,904 54,107 $10,457
2004 26,208 57,848 $11,055
2005 26,946 56,022 $11,016
2006 27,977 56,317 $11,399
2007 27,294 58,757 $11,883
2008 28,647 61,556 $12,119
2009 29,270 62,341 $12,213
Forecast
2010 66,533 $13,081
2015 73,491 $14,609
2020 82,189 $16,525
2030 99,584 $20,369