Climate Forecasting & Science Denial ism
Show all work. Homework’s can be either written or typed, but must be clear and legible.
Climate Forecasting
The following questions will be answered by using the online modeling simulator, C-Roads. The link to C-Roads is on Blackboard. You may either download the program to your computer or use the online simulator. You can make figures out of your runs by using “Print Screen” (PC) or ⌘ñ+3 and ⌘ñ+4 (Mac). It is highly recommended you go through the video tutorial on Blackboard before completing the homework in order to become familiar with using the program. Insert figures and answers into text below.
The goal is to bring atmospheric levels of temperature and CO2 back down to safe levels. Anything above 2° warming would be catastrophic, and anything above 1.5° would leave many islands under water. Ideally, CO2 level should be at or under 350 ppm (recall before the Industrial Revolution the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was ~280 ppm).
1. The “Default Run” in C-Roads is the “Business As Usual” (BAU) scenario (black line in the graphs). Experts in the field use this term to describe the current trajectory of the climate if the world took no action to change emissions or land use practices. When the BAU baseline is run on the model, describe some of the conditions predicted for the future (include CO2, temperature, ocean acidity, sea level, & ocean pH etc.).
2. Make sure your simulation is configured for “3 Region” (Developed, Developing A, Developing B). For your BAU run, how does each country group change (hover the mouse over each of the categories to better understand which countries are contained within each group)? Does each group rise equally?
3. The BAU scenario follows the “A1FI” computer model that scientists have created. There are other model scenarios such as A1, B1, A2, etc., that have different parameters plugged in. You can read the specifics of the scenarios in the lecture presentation or online. What are the main differences between the scenarios?
Note some of the different variables you can change on the simulation- deforestation (how fast we cut down forests), afforestation (how quickly we replant forests), and emissions.
4. Let’s pretend the world immediately stops chopping down forests.
a) Before you run the model, how do you think this may change the output?
b) Set Prevent Deforestation to 100% for all 3 regions. Look at the Temperature Increase graph, then change to CO2 concentration (both have to be viewed on the right side). How much did stopping deforestation mitigate temperature and CO2 rise? (make sure to include screenshots)
5. Reset Deforestation to zero. Instead, this time set Promote Afforestation to 100% for all 3 regions. This means that you’ll be taking CO2 out of the atmosphere (sequestering it) by planting more trees.
a) How much does temperature and CO2 change with this setting?
b) Change the left graph to Annual Removals by Afforestation, the amount of emissions sequestered does not continually rise over time, but actually levels off and drops off. Why do you think this happens?
6. Is there any possible way to curb temperature and CO2 rise without limiting emissions according to the model scenarios you just ran?
7. If all the countries were not able to curb their emissions until 2050, would that be enough to bring the temperature and CO2 levels down? [Set Emissions Peak Year to 2050 for each group. Include screenshots of CO2 and temperature levels.]
8. Next let’s pretend the world immediately curbed its fossil fuel emissions this year. This would mean there would be no more fossil fuel emission “growth”. Set the Emissions Peak Year to 2020 for each of the country groups. Again, describe how temperature and CO2 change over the next 90 years (what are the levels at?). Are atmospheric levels still rising, or have they stabilized? (Include at least temperature & CO2 levels, and CO2 totals and removals, and any other pertinent information to answer the question.)
9. Set the model so that the Industrialized Countries reduce their emissions by 10% starting in 2020 (Emissions Peak Year = 2020, Reductions Begin Year = 2021, Annual Reduction Rate 10%). By what percentage compared to 2005 levels does it drop to? Does it solve the problem if the major emitters curb their growth? Who else needs to reduce emissions as well? (Include at least temperature & CO2 levels, and CO2 totals and removals, the 2100 data table, and any other pertinent information to answer the question.)
10. Run the same scenario, except input the same parameters for Developing Countries A. Now what do the graphs look like? (Include at least temperature & CO2 levels, and CO2 totals and removals, the 2100 data table, and any other pertinent information to answer the question.)
11. If each region leveled off their growth in 2005 (meaning stopped emissions), atmospheric levels would still rise to unsafe levels. However, that type of scenario is not very fair and equitable, since developed countries are still allowed more emissions than the poorest countries. Ideally, growth and reduction have to be fair and equitable to the point where all the countries are at equal levels. Set the model to the following parameters (including setting Prevent Deforestation and Promote Afforestation all to 100%):
Emission Peak Year Reductions Begin Year Annual Red. Rate
Developed 2020 2040 1%
Developing A 2020 2021 1%
Developing B 2065 2065 1%
Firstly, notice that emissions levels are now about the same for each country group. How much did they change? Are the atmospheric levels stable? Does this scenario seem reasonable? Describe the conditions at 2100.
13. Playing with each of the variables, find a scenario in which world temperature and CO2 levels are brought back to the safe range. Describe the conditions you discovered worked in the table below. Again, discuss if this is reasonable/feasible for the world to accomplish. Also include screen grabs of pertinent graphs.
Emission Peak Year Reductions Begin Year Annual Red. Rate
Developed xxxx xxxx x%
Developing A xxxx xxxx x%
Developing B xxxx xxxx x%
Extra Credit:
Play around with the model and include any of your findings below (don’t just include graphs, include descriptions and analysis).
